Optimal sizing of photovoltaic-battery system for peak demand reduction using statistical models

Abstract

Due to increasing environmental concerns and demand for clean energy resources, photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming more prevalent. Considering that in several instances, customers pay for both energy and power, PV installations not only must reduce the customers’ energy purchases but also lower their peak demand for maximum financial benefits. However, in many cases, the peak demand does not coincide with the peak of photovoltaic generation. To address this issue, excess energy generated during low-demand periods can be stored in a battery, which can then be used to meet peak demand. Determining the optimal size of photovoltaic and battery components while ensuring system performance and financial benefits is significantly challenging. This study proposes a novel statistical methodology for optimizing PV-battery system size. In the proposed method, the PV-battery system must meet peak demand thresholds with a specific probability. Further, cost and benefit functions are used for financial evaluation. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations, developed using time series clustering and a Bayesian model are utilized to assess system performance and financial feasibility.