Optimal Simultaneous Confidence Bands in Multiple Linear Regression with Predictor Variables Constrained in an Ellipsoidal Region

Abstract

A simultaneous confidence band provides useful information on the plausible range of an unknown regression model function, just as a confidence interval gives the plausible range of an unknown parameter. For a multiple linear regression model, confidence bands of different shapes, such as the hyperbolic band and the constant width band, can be constructed and the predictor variable region over which a confidence band is constructed can take various forms. One interesting but unsolved problem is to find the optimal (shape) confidence band over an ellipsoidal region χE under the Minimum Volume Confidence Set (MVCS) criterion of Liu and Hayter (2007) and Liu et al. (2009). This problem is challenging as it involves optimization over an unknown function that determines the shape of the confidence band over χE. As a step towards solving this difficult problem, in this paper, we introduce a family of confidence bands over χE, called the inner-hyperbolic bands, which includes the hyperbolic and constant-width bands as special cases. We then search for the optimal confidence band within this family under the MVCS criterion. The conclusion from this study is that the hyperbolic band is not optimal even within this family of inner-hyperbolic bands and so cannot be the overall optimal band. On the other hand, the constant width band can be optimal within the family of inner-hyperbolic bands when the region χE is small and so might be the overall optimal band.