Abstract
Decision makers with the responsibility of managing policy for the COVID-19 epidemic have faced difficult choices in balancing the competing claims of saving lives and the high economic cost of shutdowns. In this paper, we formulate a model with both epidemiological and economic content to assist this decision-making process. We consider two ways to handle the balance between economic costs and deaths. First, we use the statistical value of life, which in Canada is about C$7 million, to optimize over a single variable, which is the sum of the economic cost and the value of lives lost. Our second method is to calculate the Pareto optimal front when we look at the two variables—deaths and economic costs. In both cases we find that, for most parameter values, the optimal policy is to adopt an initial shutdown level which reduces the reproduction number of the epidemic to close to 1. This level is then reduced once a vaccination programme is underway. Our model also indicates that an oscillating policy of strict and mild shutdowns is less effective than a policy which maintains a moderate shutdown level.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic led many countries to introduce an extensive economic and social lockdown to limit the spread of the disease [1]
If the epidemic is such that there is no overload of hospital capacity, and so no excess deaths, the total number of infected individuals is RT + DT, and the total number of deaths is DT 1⁄4 pIFRðRT þ DTÞ: We can compute the expected ‘value of life’ costs as the probability of dying times the value of a lost life, i.e. VLpIFR = $33 600, for our baseline parameter values
Our study is motivated by the hesitation shown by some leaders to implementing strict control measures to slow the spread of COVID-19 [29,30,31], in part due to the huge toll to the economy
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic led many countries to introduce an extensive economic and social lockdown to limit the spread of the disease [1]. While these measures are very expensive [2], in most regions where the measures were applied relatively early and with sufficient stringency, they were successful in stopping the growth of the epidemic [3]. We aim to determine what type of shutdown strategy (Xt) minimizes costs over the period of the epidemic. We remark that any decision on the extent of the lockdown has to take many factors into account. The optimization we perform should be viewed as information that can assist in making a complex decision, rather than as a simple prescription
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
