Abstract
Based on the Monte Carlo method, this paper simulates, predicts the load, and considers the travel chain of electric vehicles and different charging methods to establish a predictive model. Based on the results of electric vehicle simulation prediction, an optimal scheduling model of the distribution network considering the demand response side load is established. The firefly optimization algorithm is used to solve the optimal scheduling problem. The results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper has a certain reference value for the prediction of an electric vehicle load. The electric vehicle is placed in the optimal scheduling resource of the distribution network, which increases the dimension of the scheduling resources of the network and improves the economics of the distribution network operation.
Highlights
In the context of energy shortages, severe environmental pollution, and global climate change [1,2], electric vehicles (EVs) are alleviating the energy crisis and promoting human and natural sustainability as a representative of a new type of green transportation vehicle
This paper presents EV load forecasting modeling based on the Monte Carlo simulation, starting with the travel chain of EVs and different charging methods
Forecasting of the EV load was accomplished based on the Monte Carlo method
Summary
In the context of energy shortages, severe environmental pollution, and global climate change [1,2], electric vehicles (EVs) are alleviating the energy crisis and promoting human and natural sustainability as a representative of a new type of green transportation vehicle. Various types of EV load-preferred demand side resources [8] participating in the scheduling have multi-time-scale characteristics, and the prediction accuracy is low, making it difficult to make full use of each demand side resource These make it difficult to optimize the scheduling of the distribution network. The proposed travel chain includes a large amount of related features in time and space; it is helpful to the accuracy of forecasting results On this basis, the EV is connected to the distribution network as a demand consideration, and an optimal scheduling model of the distribution network is established to analyze the optimization results of the distribution network with or without EV access. The firefly algorithm takes a very short time, which is much less than the planning step, i.e., 1 h, so it can be regarded as on-line optimization in the paper
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