Optimal reservoir rule curves under climatic and land use changes for Lampao Dam using Genetic Algorithm

Abstract

The uncertainties of climate and land use changes have directly impacted the inflows and water resource management in reservoirs. The optimal reservoir rule curve is a tool for the mitigation of droughts and floods, which are situations that occur often. This study applied the Genetic Algorithm (GA) to connect with a reservoir simulation model to search optimal reservoir rule curves during the period 2014-2064 for Lampao Reservoir located in the northeast of Thailand. It considered the impact of climate change with the PRECIS model under two emission scenarios: A2 and B2, and created future land use maps using the CA Markov model, including an assessment of the future inflow into the reservoir using the hydrologic model SWAT in the Upper-Lampao Basin, which is the headwater area of the reservoir. The results showed that the new rule curves were improved by the GA connected simulation model and can mitigate the frequency of water shortage situations and the releases of excess water during inflow changes in the future, including a situation where the water demand increased due to the expansion of irrigation areas.