Optimal prediction for sparse linear models? Lower bounds for coordinate-separable M-estimators

Abstract

For the problem of high-dimensional sparse linear regression, it is known that an $\ell_{0}$-based estimator can achieve a $1/n$ “fast” rate for prediction error without any conditions on the design matrix, whereas in the absence of restrictive conditions on the design matrix, popular polynomial-time methods only guarantee the $1/\sqrt{n}$ “slow” rate. In this paper, we show that the slow rate is intrinsic to a broad class of M-estimators. In particular, for estimators based on minimizing a least-squares cost function together with a (possibly nonconvex) coordinate-wise separable regularizer, there is always a “bad” local optimum such that the associated prediction error is lower bounded by a constant multiple of $1/\sqrt{n}$. For convex regularizers, this lower bound applies to all global optima. The theory is applicable to many popular estimators, including convex $\ell_{1}$-based methods as well as M-estimators based on nonconvex regularizers, including the SCAD penalty or the MCP regularizer. In addition, we show that bad local optima are very common, in that a broad class of local minimization algorithms with random initialization typically converge to a bad solution.