Optimal planning for hybrid renewable energy systems under limited information based on uncertainty quantification

Abstract

Developing hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) is crucial for ensuring affordable, sustainable, and reliable energy access in remote rural and island regions. Rich and detailed data play a pivotal role in the optimal design of HRES. However, remote areas often face data limitations due to inadequate metering infrastructure, which further increases uncertainties in HRES design. This paper proposes a planning optimization method that quantifies multiple uncertainties, requiring only limited information for the optimal HRES design. First, uncertainties in HRES planning are classified into different types based on intrinsic randomness, data availability, and impact level. Then, by integrating uncertainty quantification with credibility theory, knowledge-based scenario generation models are developed to leverage limited available information to generate extreme and typical operating conditions for a tailored HRES design. Finally, a fuzzy credibility-constrained stochastic-robust optimization model is proposed to optimize the design of HRES. A practical case facing significant data scarcity and gaps is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed approach reduces the loss of load probability for HRES to 0.02% and lowers the levelized cost of energy to $0.16/kWh—33% lower than that of the deterministic method and 79% lower than that of the traditional stochastic method.