Optimal pathway to urban carbon neutrality based on scenario simulation: A case study of Shanghai, China

Abstract

Scientific analysis and prediction of carbon-neutral pathways can help rationalise the advancement of carbon neutrality goals, but how to apply simulation scenario system modelling to analyse the optimal pathways to achieve carbon neutrality in cities needs further research. By constructing the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP)-Shanghai model and simulating different future policy scenarios based on policy costs and carbon emission constraints, this work proposes an optimal path to achieve carbon neutrality, providing a new perspective for city-level carbon neutrality research. The results show that energy intensity policies and energy structure transformation policies have a significant impact on achieving carbon neutrality, with a synergistic effect when the two policies are combined. Carbon sink policies coupled with energy intensity and energy structure transformation policies also play a significant role. Various policy combinations could lead to a carbon-neutral Shanghai by 2060, with the optimal scenario being a 3.5% average annual reduction in energy intensity and a 6.5% average annual reduction in carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption. The key to achieving carbon neutrality lies in the rapid transition of the tertiary sector, promoting the advancement and application of clean energy technologies, advancing the transformation of nonelectric energy sources to electric energy sources, and promoting biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.