Optimal Monitoring Frequency Estimation Using Confidence Intervals for the Temporal Model of a Zooplankton Species Number Based on Operational Taxonomic Units at the Tongyoung Marine Science Station

Abstract

Temporal changes in the number of zooplankton species are important information for understanding basic characteristics and species diversity in marine ecosystems. The aim of the present study was to estimate the optimal monitoring frequency (OMF) to guarantee and predict the minimum number of species occurrences for studies concerning marine ecosystems. The OMF is estimated using the temporal number of zooplankton species through bi-weekly monitoring of zooplankton species data according to operational taxonomic units in the Tongyoung coastal sea. The optimal model comprises two terms, a constant (optimal mean) and a cosine function with a one-year period. The confidence interval (CI) range of the model with monitoring frequency was estimated using a bootstrap method. The CI range was used as a reference to estimate the optimal monitoring frequency. In general, the minimum monitoring frequency (numbers per year) directly depends on the target (acceptable) estimation error. When the acceptable error (range of the CI) increases, the monitoring frequency decreases because the large acceptable error signals a rough estimation. If the acceptable error (unit: number value) of the number of the zooplankton species is set to 3, the minimum monitoring frequency (times per year) is 24. The residual distribution of the model followed a normal distribution. This model can be applied for the estimation of the minimal monitoring frequency that satisfies the target error bounds, as this model provides an estimation of the error of the zooplankton species numbers with monitoring frequencies.