Abstract
In this study, we design a structural macro model for Iran economy in which there is a dual exchange rate regime, namely, official (fixed) and unofficial (floated) rates. The official rate determined by the central bank whereas unofficial rate set in the free market. The structural parameters of the designed model is estimated using quarterly data in the 1991- 2019 period, and Bayesian method. The main finding of this paper is that establishing a dual exchange rate regime cannot prevent the negative effects of exchange rate dynamics on macro variables. Therefore, it is better to abandon this strategy and instead, central bank put forward optimal respond to exchange rate dynamics. To do this, we derive an optimal policy rule for the central bank and show that the best policy is assigning equal weights to inflation rate and exchange rate in loss function and an active respond to both inflation rate and exchange rate in the policy rule.
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