Abstract
Drainage exceeding 50% of total liver volume is a beneficial prognostic factor in patients with unresectable malignant hilar biliary obstruction (UMHBO). However, it is unclear what threshold percentage of total liver volume drained ('liver drainage rate') significantly improves survival in patients with UMHBO who received systemic chemotherapy. We aimed to assess the optimal liver drainage rate that improves survival in patients with UMHBO receiving chemotherapy using a three-dimensional (3D)-image volume analyzer. This study was a single-center retrospective cohort study. Data from 90 patients with UMHBO who received chemotherapy after endoscopic biliary drainage using metal stents at Okayama University Hospital from January 2003 to December 2020 were reviewed. The liver drainage rate was calculated by dividing the drained liver volume by the total liver volume using a 3D-image volume analyzer. The primary endpoint was overall survival by liver drainage rate. The secondary endpoints were time to recurrent biliary obstruction (TRBO) and prognostic factors. The median total liver volume was 1172 (range: 673-2032) mL, and the median liver drainage rate was 83% (range: 50-100). Overall survival was 376 (95% CI: 271-450) days, and patients with >80% drainage (n = 67) had significantly longer survival than those with <80% drainage (n = 23) (450 days versus 224 days, p = 0.0033, log-rank test). TRBO was 201 (95% CI: 155-327) days and did not differ significantly by liver drainage rate. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed >80% liver drainage [hazard ratio (HR): 0.35, 95% CI: 0.20-0.62, p = 0.0003] and hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.17-0.50, p < 0.0001) as significant prognostic factors. In patients with UMHBO scheduled for chemotherapy, >80% drainage is associated with improved survival. Further prospective multicenter studies are needed to verify the results of this study. Okayama University Hospital, IRB number: 2108-011.
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