Abstract

In this paper, we study the deviation probability estimate for a leveraged exchanged-traded fund (LETF). By large deviation principle, we derive explicitly the logarithmic limit of the tail probability when the price of a LETF exceeds a given reference asset, which allows us to compute the underlying leverage ratio. Then we apply our results to various existing models, including the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, inverse GARCH model, extended Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model, 3/2 model, as well as the Heston and 3/2 stochastic volatility models, and to present their corresponding optimal leverage ratios, respectively.

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