Optimal Individualized Treatments in Resource-Limited Settings.

Abstract

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a treatment rule which assigns treatments to individuals based on (a subset of) their measured covariates. An optimal ITR is the ITR which maximizes the population mean outcome. Previous works in this area have assumed that treatment is an unlimited resource so that the entire population can be treated if this strategy maximizes the population mean outcome. We consider optimal ITRs in settings where the treatment resource is limited so that there is a maximum proportion of the population which can be treated. We give a general closed-form expression for an optimal stochastic ITR in this resource-limited setting, and a closed-form expression for the optimal deterministic ITR under an additional assumption. We also present an estimator of the mean outcome under the optimal stochastic ITR in a large semiparametric model that at most places restrictions on the probability of treatment assignment given covariates. We give conditions under which our estimator is efficient among all regular and asymptotically linear estimators. All of our results are supported by simulations.