Abstract

The classical Kermack-McKendrick model for the spread of an epidemic through a closed population has recently been extended by Billard to allow for the recovery and possible reinfection of infective cases. In this paper, we study the optimal control of such an epidemic through immunization of susceptibles when costs are proportional to the area under the infectives trajectory plus the total number of immunizations. When the immunization rate is bounded, optimal controls are of bang-bang type and are characterized by switching curves in the epidemic state space. Explicit expressions for these curves are obtained in the case of deterministic dynamics. When the epidemic is described by a Markov chain, numerical solutions for the switching curve are easy to obtain by dynamic programming, and useful analytic approximations to them are described. The results include those for the so-called general epidemic in which no recovery is allowed.

Full Text
Paper version not known

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.