Abstract

Motivated by previous papers with conventional models of Geometric Brownian Motion (Hereafter GBM) or Mean-Reverting (Hereafter MR), we discuss the classical investment timing problem in this paper by assuming the output price follows Heston-GBM process. That is, constant volatility in the classical GBM or MR framework is replaced by stochastic volatility in Heston-GBM model. We first derive the asymptotic solution for the investment timing problem. Then the impacts of stochastic volatility on trigger prices and the range of inaction are demonstrated by numerical simulation. Lastly, we examine the analytical properties of trigger prices and the range of inaction quantitatively as well as qualitatively.

Highlights

  • In the real world, most investment decisions are made in an uncertain background and are costly to reverse in the future

  • We will introduce our model in detail for the sake of intactness though it is an extension to the standard models to study entry and exit decisions under uncertainty, which proposed by Dixit and Tsekrekos

  • Many investment decisions of firms such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity have been studied by many researches, which involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition, etc

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Summary

Introduction

Most investment decisions are made in an uncertain background and are costly to reverse in the future. Many researchers spent much time and energy to investigate this area from different aspects, and a number of new and useful results have been achieved Within these papers, Amir and Lambson [7] constructed an infinite-horizon, stochastic model of entry and exit with sunk costs and imperfect competition. Amir and Lambson [7] constructed an infinite-horizon, stochastic model of entry and exit with sunk costs and imperfect competition They find that for the general dynamic stochastic game, there exists a sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium as a limit of finite-horizon equilibria, which has a relatively simple structure characterized by two numbers per finite history.

Model Setup
Model Analysis
Numerical Simulation
Conclusions
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