Optimal Cost-Effective Screening Strategy for Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms in Female Smokers.

Abstract

The prevalence of intracranial aneurysms among female cigarette smokers was shown to be high in previous studies, yet the cost-effectiveness of screening them has never been explored. To explore the most cost-effective screening strategy for female smokers. A decision analytical study was performed with a Markov model to compare different screening strategies with no screening and to explore the most optimal screening strategy for female smokers. Input data for the model were extracted from literature. A single screening at different ages and multiple screening every 15 years, 10 years, 5 years, and 2 years were performed for female smokers in different age ranges. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of the model. Finally, value of information analysis was performed to investigate the value of collecting additional data. Screening female smokers for unruptured intracranial aneurysm is cost-effective. All screening strategies yield extra quality-adjusted life years. Screening at younger age brings more health benefit at lower cost. Frequent screening strategies decrease rupture rate of aneurysms more with higher costs per quality-adjusted life year. Screening after age 70 years and frequent screening (every 2 years) after age 60 years is not optimal. Among all the parameters in the model, collecting additional data on utility of the unscreened population would be most valuable. Screening female smokers for intracranial aneurysms once at younger age is most optimal. However, in clinical practice, the duration and intensity of exposure to cigarettes should be taken into consideration.