Optimal control model of human-to-human transmission of monkeypox virus

Abstract

Background: The number of monkeypox cases is rising globally, but it’s unclear how many instances there will be in the near future. The disease has been one of the major problems for sub-Saharan Africans in the past few years. This study seeks to suggest optimal strategies for curbing the disease in Ghana and preventing future occurrences. Methods: A deterministic mathematical model incorporating optimal controls has been developed in this research to investigate the transmission of the monkeypox virus. The model’s fundamental properties such as positivity and boundedness of solution, and basic reproduction number have been examined. In order to assess the efficacy of two preventative control strategies—public education and vaccination—optimal controls were included in the model and Pontragyin’s maximum principle was used to characterize the model. Results: The disease was observed to be not endemic with infection going extinct after ten days. The Monkeypox-related deaths were insignificant. The optimal strategies revealed that public education had less of an effect on those who were vulnerable than the vaccine control strategy. However, both approaches were successful in reducing the number of people who were exposed to the illness and reducing the number of fatalities. Vaccination reduced the number by 32.35% and public education by 50% at the peak of the exposed phase. Additionally, vaccination increases a person’s immunity, which speeds up their recovery. Conclusions: A deterministic classical model incorporating optimal controls was proposed to study the monkeypox virus dynamics in a population. The disease is not endemic, which is explained by the model’s basic reproduction number, which was less than unity. Based on the findings of this study, we advise the use of both strategies in controlling the disease.