Optimal control analysis of COVID-19 vaccine epidemic model: a case study.

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to explore the complex dynamics and impact of vaccination in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. We formulate the classical epidemic compartmental model by introducing vaccination class. Initially, the proposed mathematical model is analyzed qualitatively. The basic reproductive number is computed and its numerical value is estimated using actual reported data of COVID-19 for Pakistan. The sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the contribution of model embedded parameters in transmission of the disease. Further, we compute the equilibrium points and discussed its local and global stability. In order to investigate the influence of model key parameters on the transmission and controlling of the disease, we perform numerical simulations describing the impact of various scenarios of vaccine efficacy rate and other controlling measures. Further, on the basis of sensitivity analysis, the proposed model is restructured to obtained optimal control model by introducing time-dependent control variables u_1(t) for isolation, u_2(t) for vaccine efficacy and u_3(t) for treatment enhancement. Using optimal control theory and Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the model is optimized and important optimality conditions are derived. In order to explore the impact of various control measures on the disease dynamics, we considered three different scenarios, i.e., single and couple and threefold controlling interventions. Finally, the graphical interpretation of each case is depicted and discussed in detail. The simulation results revealed that although single and couple scenarios can be implemented for the disease minimization but, the effective case to curtail the disease incidence is the threefold scenario which implements all controlling measures at the same time.