Optimal coal power phase-out pathway considering high renewable energy proportion: A provincial example

Abstract

Since the announcement of the “carbon neutrality” goal, China has actively promoted the low-carbon transition across various industries. Controversy surrounds the fate of existing coal power units as, despite their carbon emissions, they remain integral to meeting the escalating power demand. Simultaneously, the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) underscores the need for coal power to provide flexible services, ensuring the safety and stability of the power grid. This study takes a province as example, establishing a comprehensive simulation model that considers a high share of RES to evaluate the optimal phase-out pathway for coal power in China. The analysis incorporates factors such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), and power demand growth. Results suggest that an immediate reduction in coal power capacity is not viable due to concerns about power supply safety. Recommendations emphasize the importance of maintaining a steady coal power capacity in the short term while concurrently developing RES, BESS, and CCS technologies. This approach facilitates a judicious withdrawal of coal power, contributing to cost reduction and ensuring a balanced transition. Furthermore, effective demand-side management emerges as a crucial.