Optimal Capacity Planning in Renewable Energy Transition Considering Climate Change with a California Case Study

Abstract

Global use of fossil fuels increases the growth of carbon dioxide (CO <inf xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</inf> ) emissions and results in significant climate change. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the mix of renewable energy continues to grow. In this case, the quality of electric service becomes more susceptible to climate change. This research studies California’s case on the relationship between climate change and renewable energy generation, providing a methodology to estimate optimal renewable energy capacity in transitioning from fuel-based energy to renewable energy. Proper planning of renewable energy capacity will help avoid electric supply shortages caused by climate change and reduce the reserved residual energy’s maintenance cost. This will lead to finding the optimal operating capacity of renewable energy and expedite the capacity transition to renewable energy from fuel-based energy. This research is based on California’s climate and energy generation data, but the same methodology can be applied and tested to any region in planning renewable energy capacity and transition.