Optimal biomass allocation to the German bioeconomy based on conflicting economic and environmental objectives

Abstract

While some studies have simultaneously modeled the competitiveness of biochemicals alongside bioenergy and biofuels for greenhouse gas abatement, this has never been done before for Germany. The findings on the potential greenhouse gas abatement from these previous studies cannot be replicated in the German context because of different frame conditions, such as biomass potentials, temporal horizon, climate targets and the evolution of demand from biomass end-use sectors. This, therefore, necessitates a country-specific assessment. In this study we use a bi-objective bottom-up optimization model to quantify the potential greenhouse abatement (i.e. from best compromise solutions between the cost-optimal and technical-optimal objectives) for biomass deployment to the bioenergy, biofuels and biochemical sectors of the German bioeconomy. Results show that, with a reference crude oil price development, biomass potentials (i.e. 300 PJ of forest residues and 2.7 million hectares of arable land) could save 69 million t CO2-eq by 2050, representing a 6% reduction over 1990 GHG emission levels in the energy, building, transport and industrial sectors. The cumulative abatement (i.e. for 2020–2050) of 1.72 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions was found to be 8.5% higher than when the available biomass resources were exclusively used for bioenergy and biofuels.