Optimal areas and climate change effects on dragon fruit cultivation in Mesoamerica

Abstract

AbstractClimbing cacti with edible fruits have been proposed as new dryland fruit crops because their high water-use efficiency reduces water requirement. One lineage of climbers in the cactus family, theHylocereusgroup ofSelenicereus, includes several species that produce edible fruits and is currently cultivated around the world. Fruits are known as pitahayas, pitayas or dragon fruit. Here, by means of ecological niche-based modelling and analytical hierarchical modelling, the optimal areas for cultivating the three main species of this group in Mesoamerica –Selenicereus costaricensis,Selenicereus ocamponisandSelenicereus undatus– are identified. Data on distribution, physiological requirement and host preferences are taken into account to carry out ecological modelling for current and future scenarios of climate and determine its impact on cultivation. Two MIROC climatic future models, one optimistic (ssp216) and a pessimistic (ssp585) were selected and 554 records from Mexico and Central America were gathered. For all three species, temperature and precipitation seasonality, and solar radiation were the most significant variables in the niche modelling. In addition, forS. undatusthe most important hosts, three species of mesquite legume trees were significant to forecast suitable areas for planting. Large areas on the Pacific side from Sinaloa to Costa Rica were predicted as favourable for cultivating the studied three species. Future scenarios of climate change predicted increase of suitable areas for two species and in particular forS. undatusthe increment was the largest. Therefore, dragon fruits are corroborated as promising fruits in view of climate change.