Optimal Allocation of Surface Water Resources at the Provincial Level in the Uzbekistan Region of the Amudarya River Basin

Min Wang,Philippe DeMaeyer,Liangzhong Cao,Xi Chen,Alishir Kurban,Ayetiguli Sidike

doi:10.3390/w13111446

Abstract

Water users in the Amudarya River Basin in Uzbekistan are suffering severe water use competition and uneven water allocation, which seriously threatens ecosystems, as shown, for example, in the well-known Aral Sea catastrophe. This study explores the optimized water allocation schemes in the study area at the provincial level under different incoming flow levels, based on the current water distribution quotas among riparian nations, which are usually ignored in related research. The optimization model of the inexact two-stage stochastic programming method is used, which is characterized by probability distributions and interval values. Results show that (1) water allocation is redistributed among five different sectors. Livestock, industrial, and municipality have the highest water allocation priority, and water competition mainly exists in the other two sectors of irrigation and ecology; (2) water allocation is redistributed among six different provinces, and allocated water only in Bukhara and Khorezm can satisfy the upper bound of water demand; (3) the ecological sector can receive a guaranteed water allocation of 8.237–12.354 km3; (4) under high incoming flow level, compared with the actual water distribution, the total allocated water of four sectors (except for ecology) is reduced by 3.706 km3 and total economic benefits are increased by USD 3.885B.

Highlights

Uzbekistan is one of the countries suffering the most pressing water challenges [1,2], with the average water consumption per capita since 2000 amounting to just 88.29 m3, which is much less than the world average
Given the water challenges in Uzbekistan related to balancing economic development and ecological sustainability, and the unreasonable use of water resources from the Amudarya River, there is an obvious need to explore the optimization of the portion of water resources from the Amudarya River distributed to Uzbekistan
The total sum of the water demand amounts to 40.173–45.704 km3, which exceeds the water supply under all incoming flow levels and under most guaranteed rates, and water shortage exists and optimal allocation work is necessary

Summary

Introduction

Uzbekistan is one of the countries suffering the most pressing water challenges [1,2], with the average water consumption per capita since 2000 amounting to just 88.29 m3, which is much less than the world average. The Amudarya River, of which the total flow amounts to 78.46 km3/year [3], is one of Uzbekistan’s two main water sources, and it covers most parts of the country. The Aral Sea is the largest inland tail-end lake in arid Central Asia and plays a very important role in the local water resources and ecological environment [9]. Aral Sea’s drying has already led to a series of negative consequences in local areas and even the entire Central Asia region, such as spreading and intensifying desertification, local climate change, and increasing threats to the residents’ health [10,11]. As one of the two main supply rivers of the Aral Sea, the Amudarya River is almost used up by riparian countries. Water shortage throughout Uzbekistan is especially severe in dry water years [12,13,14], which could hamper economic development and ecological protection and even threaten national security

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion