Abstract
In the study of the evolution of Gaussian beam in saturated nonlinear media, it is found that the probability of optical rogue waves changes with the change of nonlinearity. The light intensity distribution on the exit surface of nonlinear medium can be characterized by scintillation index, and the change of rogue wave corresponds to the evolution of scintillation index. The rogue wave probability shows a complex trend with the evolution of nonlinearity. The Lyapunov exponent and power spectrum method are used to determine that the probability of rogue wave is chaotic with nonlinear evolution.
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