Opposition to housing development in a suburban US County: Characteristics, origins, and consequences

Abstract

Local opposition to new housing is a well-known phenomenon, but the degree to which it characterizes planning debates or influences outcomes, relative to more supportive stances, is less understood. This paper investigates public comments recorded at public hearings regarding housing-related rezoning cases in order to quantify the amount of comments that can be characterized as oppositional, as well as the sources and effects of this opposition. We conducted a survey of comments made over three decades by 994 individuals appearing at planning commission hearings concerning 330 rezoning cases in Henrico County, Virginia (USA). We find that the overwhelming majority (85.8%) of individuals expressed negative sentiments, that this negativity was consistent throughout the study period, and that this negativity was most often stated in terms of anxieties over traffic, flooding, road connections and access, proposed development density, and property values. Using logistic regression analysis, we find that larger rezonings, the incorporation of multi-family or zero lot-line housing, higher census tract populations, increases in homeownership, increasing population density, and increasing racial diversity are all significantly associated with higher levels of opposition. Opposition in the case study county contributes to the adoption of numerous zoning conditions related to traffic, drainage, and site design, but more commonly to restrictions on density and increased floor areas.