Abstract
ABSTRACT In May 2018, the Malaysian opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan or Hope Alliance won the federal elections for the first time in the history of the country. The electoral authoritarian system is now in a state of transition. The electoral breakthrough was the result of longer-term socio-economic transformations, but the formation of a strong pre-electoral coalition was ultimately decisive for the victory. The article compares various coalitions and their performance during seven elections since 1990. The structured, focused comparison analyses the coalitions during this period because prior to 1990 the opposition was fragmented. On the basis of a three-level concept regarding the strength of pre-electoral coalitions, the article argues that Pakatan Harapan was successful because the coalition was sufficiently comprehensive (as indicated by the number and the competitiveness of candidates), cohesive (concerning ideological proximity and behavioural routinization) and well-rooted in society (in terms of linkages to voters/supporters and to civil society networks or organizations).
Highlights
Within the institutional framework of electoral authoritarianism, opposition coalitions are in most cases fragile
Which opposition coalitions have the best chance of winning elections in authoritarian systems? Whereas there is ample literature on coalitions built after elections, there is astoundingly little on those established before the polls1, democratization by elections as a specific type of transition is increasingly important
The replacement of PAS with Bersatu, Amanah and Warisan only motivated a tiny fraction of voters in 2018 to abstain from voting or even from supporting the regime coalition
Summary
Within the institutional framework of electoral authoritarianism, opposition coalitions are in most cases fragile. Ahead of the 1999 elections, DAP, PAS and the newly established Parti Keadilan Nasional (National Justice Party, later renamed Parti Keadilan Rakyat, People’s Justice Party, PKR) even founded a pre-electoral coalition that included secular and Islamist forces: the Alternative Front or Barisan Alternatif (BA) This was the first time in Malaysian history that such a strong alliance encompassing such unlikely bedfellows had been created. At the PAS congress in June 2015, a reformist faction was unsuccesful in elections for leadership positions This “Erdoğan faction” had always supported coalitions with the other opposition parties and was ready to compromise on issues such as expanding Islamic law or insisting on the establishment of an (usually ill-defined) Islamic state.. An example of the enthusiasm of opposition supporters was the Facebook group called “GE 14: Postal Voters Discussion” that organized the distribution of sealed ballots from overseas voters via runners to polling stations across the country
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