Abstract
Global population projections foresee the biggest increase to occur in Africa with most of the available uncultivated land to ensure food security remaining on the continent. Simultaneously, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise due to ongoing land use change, industrialisation, and transport amongst other reasons with Africa becoming a major emitter of greenhouse gases globally. However, distinct knowledge on greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their variability remains largely unknown caused by its vast size and diversity and an according lack of observations across the continent. Thus, an environmental research infrastructure—as being setup in other regions—is more needed than ever. Here, we present the results of a design study that developed a blueprint for establishing such an environmental research infrastructure in Africa. The blueprint comprises an inventory of already existing observations, the spatial disaggregation of locations that will enable to reduce the uncertainty in climate forcing’s in Africa and globally as well as an overall estimated cost for such an endeavour of about 550 M€ over the next 30 years. We further highlight the importance of the development of an e-infrastructure, the necessity for capacity development and the inclusion of all stakeholders to ensure African ownership.
Highlights
The greatest increase in global population growth in the twenty-first century is projected to occur in Africa (FAO 2017), where much of the available uncultivated land required to meet global twenty-first century food demand is located (Ramankutty et al 2018)
Land use change in Africa is proceeding at an unprecedented rate, through agricultural expansion and urbanisation, leading to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and it is expected that emissions from industrialisation, transport and power generation will follow suit (Liousse et al 2014)
The continent is already strongly affected by climate change and its vulnerability to extreme weather and climate conditions may increase during its further development
Summary
The greatest increase in global population growth in the twenty-first century is projected to occur in Africa (FAO 2017), where much of the available uncultivated land required to meet global twenty-first century food demand is located (Ramankutty et al 2018). The SEACRIFOG consortium investigated: (1) the availability of ongoing and historical observations relevant to quantifying the African GHG budget (López-Ballesteros et al 2018; Beck et al 2019); (2) feasible designs and associated costs for an integrated environmental research infrastructure, primarily targeted at GHG emission quantification, that meets the requirements of the African continent and the globe (as determined by the UNFCCC reporting requirements and the global ‘essential variable lists’ respectively); (3) investment in human capacity by training future researchers in environmental observations and building a network of researchers to drive an African RI and use its data scientifically, jointly with partners from across the globe; and (4) the establishment of a stakeholder dialogue platform to create awareness and ownership of RIs at national and continental levels.
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