Opportunities and Limitations of Turkey as a Mediator in Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations

Abstract

Introduction. State mediation remains a requested activity in practical politics and an actual topic in the research field, as the number of conflicts has increased dramatically in the last decade, as well as long-standing frozen conflicts, which are poorly managed by intergovernmental organizations have escalated. At the same time, mediation and its principles are in the process of evolution, as more often large regional players become mediators, which themselves are active parties to conflicts. Under the change, in particular, was the principle of neutrality. This article focuses on the analysis of Turkey's mediation initiatives in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and how it uses mediation to achieve its foreign policy goals. The article analyzes the goals of Turkish mediation, its ability to advance the negotiation process between the parties and the limitations that affect Turkey's position as a mediator.Materials and methods. Russian and foreign studies on the effectiveness factors of states' mediation as a form of resolving international military conflicts were used as materials for writing the article. The methodological base was made up of discourse analysis and case studies. Turkey’s mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict after the start of the Russian special operation in February 2022 was taken as a case.Research results. At this stage, Turkey managed to organize several rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which ended with the signing of important agreements on resolving some of the issues on the negotiation agenda, which are more related to the broad international consequences of the conflict than the main points of the negotiations demand of Russia and Ukraine. Nevertheless, the negotiations organized by Turkey in July 2022 allowed it to establish itself as a party that has a certain authority and weight among the negotiating parties. Turkey's resources of influence as a mediator include, in particular, extensive trade and economic ties and relations of interdependence and partnership with each of the parties to the conflict.Discussion and conclusion. Since the negotiation process is in the dynamics of development, it is too early to conclude that Turkey has realized all the possibilities of mediation to resolve the conflict. However, its mediation has concrete results: its authority and geopolitical resources have made it possible to remove some of the problems that arose as a result of the Ukrainian conflict and have far-reaching consequences for international security. This allows us to conclude that Turkey has every opportunity to continue its mediation efforts to involve the parties in discussing the items on the negotiation agenda relating to the most pressing problems and which have become the direct cause of the clash. Therefore, the geopolitical consequences of Turkey's international activity in resolving the conflict in Ukraine will remain a hot topic for further study.