Abstract
The practical utilization of available modern as well as traditional weather forecasting systems builds herders’ resiliency capacity to climatic shocks. The precision and reliability of the forecasting system determines its creditability and acceptance by the users to be proactive in the decisions they make based on the forecasted information. It has been postulated that traditional weather forecasting systems are becoming less reliable due to repeated faulty forecasts. The study assesses the current status of the Borana traditional weather forecasting system and how traditional experts make weather forecasts based on biotic indicators such as intestinal readings, changes in plant and animal body languages. Questionnaire survey, field observations, focus group discussions and interviews with relevant key informants were employed to obtain data. Collected field data was compared with National Metrological Service Agency instrumental data for consistency. Results reveal that herders made short term weather forecasts using intestinal readings, and observed changes in plant and animal body languages. The study shows the extent how public confidence in the accuracy of indigenous weather forecasting skills has been gradually eroded overtime due to faulty forecasts. The precision and credibility of the traditional weather forecast steadily declined and led to repeated faulty predictions. Poor documentation, oral based knowledge transfer system, influence of religion and modern education, aging and extinction of traditional experts were identified as the major causes undermining the vitality of traditional climate forecast. Traditional weather foresting knowledge and skill could have some utility and also serve as a starting point to scientifically study the relationship between various signs and implied climatic events. This article recommends before traditional Borana weather forecasting system completely disappears, a remedial action should be carried out to rescue this long established wisdom, knowledge and skill and maximize the benefits from what works well. The forecast needs of herders could be rendered by a combination of modern and traditional weather forecasting services. Further research is required to explore possible area of complementarity between the modern and traditional forecasting systems for improved efficiency and effectiveness in predictability, dissemination and advice.
Highlights
The idea and practice of indigenous weather forecasting is inbuilt in many cultures and has been established after long years of observation (Ziervogel and Opere 2010)
The declining popularity of traditional forecasting is explained by the extinction of some biotic species that were used for weather forecasting (Kipkorir et al 2010; Roncoli et al 2001)
The precarious survival of indigenous weather forecasting skills is further undermined by poverty, lack of clear knowledge transfer mechanisms and poor documentation (Makwara 2013; Shoko 2012; Nakashima et al 2012; Speranza et al 2010; Chang’a et al 2010)
Summary
The idea and practice of indigenous weather forecasting is inbuilt in many cultures and has been established after long years of observation (Ziervogel and Opere 2010). It is necessary to study the status of indigenous practices of weather forecasting among the Borena before they vanish beyond possible recovery. The idea of integrating the experience of modern science and indigenous knowledge for more rigorous weather forecasting is valued. This is because weather information is critical to agricultural decisions pertaining to cropping time, stocking size and rangeland management (Tekwa and Belel 2009). The research approach in and outside Borena has been largely descriptive with almost a total avoidance of a critical examination of the internal validity of the knowledge claims of traditional weather forecasting systems.
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