Opioid Deaths and Local Healthcare Intensity: A Longitudinal Analysis of the U.S. Population, 2003–2014

Abstract

This study examines the association between local healthcare intensity and drug death rates. County-level drug death rates were computed for 2003-2014 using vital statistics data adjusted for incomplete reporting of drug involvement. A county-level healthcare intensity index was constructed using Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care data. Linear regression and dose-response models were estimated for all residents and for population subgroups to analyze the relationship between healthcare intensity and drug death rates, as well as for 7 indicators of healthcare quality. Data collection and analysis were conducted in 2018 and 2019. Linear estimates indicated a positive correlation between healthcare intensity and opioid-involved drug death rates. Dose-response models revealed that the association was especially pronounced for the 2 highest healthcare intensity quintiles. Moving from the lowest to the highest healthcare intensity quintile was associated with a 2.14 (95% CI=1.56, 2.72) per 100,000 rise in opioid-involved drug death rates and a 25.1% (95% CI=18.3%, 31.9%) increase from the base rate of 8.54 per 100,000. Corresponding associations were larger in absolute terms for individuals who were male, white, aged 20-44 years, and not college educated than for their counterparts, but similar in percentages, except for 2 minority racial groups and seniors. Non-opioid drug death rates were unrelated to healthcare intensity. High healthcare intensity was associated with worse healthcare quality for 6 of 7 indicators. In the U.S., between 2003 and 2014, high medical care intensity was associated with elevated opioid death rates and lower healthcare quality.