Opinion Evolution in Divided Community.

Tomasz Weron,Janusz Szwabiński

doi:10.3390/e24020185

Abstract

Our agent-based model of opinion dynamics concerns the current vast divisions in modern societies. It examines the process of social polarization, understood here as the partition of a community into two opposing groups with contradictory opinions. Our goal is to measure how mutual animosities between parties may lead to their radicalization. We apply a double-clique topology with both positive and negative ties to the model of binary opinions. Individuals are subject to social pressure; they conform to the opinions of their own clique (positive links) and oppose those from the other one (negative links). There is also a chance of acting independently, which alters the system’s behavior in various ways, depending on its magnitude. The results, obtained with both Monte-Carlo simulations and the mean-field approach, lead to two main conclusions: in such a system, there exists a critical quantity of negative relations that are needed for polarization to occur, and (rather surprisingly) independent actions actually support the process, unless their frequency is too high, in which case the system falls into total disorder.

Highlights

Polarization is a frequently used concept in social and political science as well as economics, but its definition may differ between domains
We will follow the one given by DiMaggio et al and assume that polarization refers to a situation in which a group of people is divided into two opposing cliques with contrasting positions on a given issue [1]. This type of polarization is sometimes called bi-polarization [2] to distinguish it from the group polarization phenomenon, i.e., the tendency for a group to make more extreme decisions than the initial inclination of its members [3,4]
Recent observers point to a growing polarization of modern societies [5]. This seems to be a defining feature of many public domains and was identified in the World Economic Forum’s 2017 Global Risk Report as one of the top threats to the global order [6]. It is gaining increasing attention from researchers working at the intersection of many fields, including social and political science, economics, mathematics and statistical physics

Summary

Introduction

Polarization is a frequently used concept in social and political science as well as economics, but its definition may differ between domains. We will follow the one given by DiMaggio et al and assume that polarization refers to a situation in which a group of people is divided into two opposing cliques with contrasting positions on a given issue [1]. Recent observers point to a growing polarization of modern societies [5] This seems to be a defining feature of many public domains and was identified in the World Economic Forum’s 2017 Global Risk Report as one of the top threats to the global order [6]. It is gaining increasing attention from researchers working at the intersection of many fields, including social and political science, economics, mathematics and statistical physics

Objectives

Results

Conclusion