Opinion dynamics: Kinetic modelling with mass media, application to the Scottish independence referendum

Abstract

We consider a kinetic model describing some mechanisms of opinion formation in the framework of referendums, where the individuals, who can interact between themselves and modify their opinion by means of spontaneous self-thinking, are moreover under the influence of mass media. We study, at the numerical level, both the transient and the asymptotic regimes. In particular, we point out that a plurality of media, with different orientations, is a key ingredient to allow pluralism and prevent consensus. The forecasts of the model are compared to some surveys related to the Scottish independence referendum of 2014.