Abstract
Background: Risk models are useful tools for computing risk-adjusted outcomes. However, the models are only as good as the data on which they are based and therefore have limitations. Our aim was to compare the abilities of surgeons and an established risk model to predict operative mortality after aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also investigated scenarios that give rise to discrepancies between surgeons' and the risk model's predictions. Methods: The Veterans Affairs Continuous Improvement in Cardiac Surgery Program (CICSP) is a prospective database and a well-validated cardiac surgery risk model.
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