Abstract
AbstractThis paper discusses the operations analysis in the underwater search for the remains of the submarine ScorpionThe a priori target location probability distribution for the search was obtained by monte‐carlo procedures based upon nine different scenarios concerning the Scorpion loss and associated credibility weights. These scenarios and weights were postulated by others. Scorpion was found within 260 yards of the search grid cell having the largest a priori probabilityFrequent computations of local effectiveness probabilities (LEPs) were carried out on scene during the search and were used to determine an updated (a posteriori) target location distribution. This distribution formed the basis for recommendation of the current high probability areas for searchThe sum of LEPs weighted by the a priori target location probabilities is called search effectiveness probability (SEP) and was used as the overall measure of effectiveness for the operation. SEP and LEPs were used previously in the Mediterranean H‐bomb searchOn‐scene and stateside operations analysis are discussed and the progress of the search is indicated by values of SEP for various periods during the operation.
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