Operationalisation of the Floating Voters Hypothesis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Abstract

Vote bank of almost all the political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) is fluctuating in every general election. It is believed that a significant ratio of floating voters exists in KP. These voters play a significant role as key deciders in every general election. But the basic question is "who are the floating voters and how do they influence the outcomes of the general elections in KP? This study is an attempt to test the floating voters’ hypothesis in KP. For testing this hypothesis, a four variable scale that includes, decision to vote; political awareness; satisfaction from the performance of the political party and interest in political and/or party affairs is used. Data collection is done through a closed-ended survey questionnaire and a multi-stage sampling technique is used for this purpose. Data is collected from three geographical regions of KP i.e., North, Centre, and South. The study population is total voters of KP, and a representative sample of 1200 respondents is determined through a statistical formula. Chi-Square test is used for the correlations of independent and dependent variables. The analysis of data confirmed the "floating voters’ hypothesis" and identified a significant ratio of floating voters in the KP.