Operational wind and turbulence nowcasting capability for advanced air mobility

Abstract

The present study introduces “WindAware”, a wind and turbulence prediction system that provides nowcasts of wind and turbulence parameters every 5 min up to 6 h over a predetermined airway over Chicago, Illinois, USA, based on 100 m high-resolution simulations (HRSs). This system is a long short-term memory-based recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) that uses existing ground-based wind data to provide nowcasts (forecasts up to 6 h every 5 min) of wind speed, wind direction, wind gust, and eddy dissipation rate to support the Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UASs) safe integration into the National Airspace System (NAS). These HRSs are validated using both ground-based measurements over airports and upper-air radiosonde observations and their skill is illustrated during lake-breeze events. A reasonable agreement is found between measured and simulated winds especially when the boundary layer is convective, but the timing and inland penetration of lake-breeze events are overall slightly misrepresented. The WindAware model is compared with the classic multilayer perceptron (MLP) and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. It is demonstrated by comparison to high-resolution simulations that WindAware provides more accurate predictions than the MLP over the 6 h lead times and has almost similar performance as the XGBoost model although the XGBoost’s training is the fastest using its parallelized implementation. WindAware also has higher prediction errors when validated against lake-breeze events data due to their under-representation in the training dataset.