Abstract
The National Meteorological Center (NMC) of the U. S. National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for the production of operational extended range predictions of general climatic conditions over the U. S. in several time ranges. These differ from the forecasts issued by the NWS for periods out to 5 days in that they predict time averaged departures from normal of surface temperature and precipitation, rather than specific weather events. Such predictions are clearly near the frontiers of the state of the art, and methods of improving them are one of the topics of the present workshop. In this paper, we will discuss the current operational practices used at NMC to produce seasonal forecasts. We will begin with a brief description of the background and historical context, will then present the current process, and will conclude with some cautious remarks regarding the future of such operational predictions.
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