Operational risk assessment model for city buses

Abstract

The development of public transport systems presently focuses on sustainability. In this situation, the issue of user (passenger) migration has become important to the transport company as a service provider. This paper presents an integrated model of the operational risk of vehicle incapacity, including the following: costs of incidental repairs, costs of unplanned downtime and costs resulting from potential user migration. The paper presents the results of operational research on buses of two makes over a period of 6 years, in the mileage range of 0–420 000 km. The authors have determined the risk as a regression function of operational mileage to estimate the optimum life cycle. The quality of the vehicle was assessed using the criterion of the maximum cost of the operational incapacity risk being equal to the current residual value of the vehicle. The research results confirmed the suitability of the integrated risk model for a comparison of vehicle makes and assessment of their reasonably foreseeable life cycle in a balanced carrier-vehicleuser system.