Operational low-flow forecasting using LSTMs

Abstract

This study focuses on exploring the potential of using Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) for low-flow forecasting for the Rhine River at Lobith on a daily scale with lead times up to 46 days ahead. A novel LSTM-based model architecture is designed to leverage both historical observation and forecasted meteorological data to carry out multi-step discharge time series forecasting. The feature and target selection for this deep learning (DL) model involves evaluating the use of different spatial resolutions for meteorological forcing (basin-averaged or subbasin-averaged), the impact of incorporating past discharge observations, and the use of different target variables (discharge Q or time-differenced discharge dQ). Then, the model is trained using the ERA5 dataset as meteorological forcing, and employed for operational forecast with ECMWF seasonal forecast (SEAS5) data. The forecast results are compared to a benchmark process-based model, wflow_sbm. This study also explores the flexibility of the DL model by fine-tuning the pretrained model with limited SEAS5 dataset. Key findings from feature and target selection include: (1) opting for subbasin-averaged meteorological variables significantly improves model performance compared to a basin-averaged approach. (2) Utilizing dQ as the target variable greatly boosts short-term forecast accuracy compared to using Q, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 25 m3 s−1 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.02 for the first lead time, ensuring reliability and accuracy at the onset of the forecast horizon. (3) While incorporating historical discharge improves the forecasting of Q, its impact on predicting dQ is less pronounced for short lead times. In the operational forecast with SEAS5, compared to the wflow_sbm model, the DL model exhibits skill in forecasting low flows as evidenced by Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) median values of all lead times above zero, and better accuracy in forecasting drought events within short lead times. The wflow_sbm model shows higher accuracy for longer lead times. In the exploration of fine-tuning approach, the fine-tuned model generates marginal short-term enhancements in forecasting low-flow events over a non-fine-tuned model. Overall, this study contributes to advancing the field of low-flow forecasting using deep learning approach.