Operational Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

Abstract

The article “A hurricane's punch still knocks out forecasters” (E. Kintisch, News of the Week, 1 Sept., p. [1221][1]) describes conclusions reached in a report submitted to the Science Advisory Board of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by a Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group. As noted in the article, a major conclusion of this report was the perceived need for high-resolution numerical modeling (with grid sizes as fine as 1 km) to ensure accurate forecasts of hurricane intensity. However, the Working Group also submitted a minority report, written by the present authors. We have concluded that adoption of some prominent recommendations in the majority report will perpetuate a narrow focus on highly detailed computer simulation. That focus is incommensurate with both available NOAA in-house numerical-analysis support staff and available in-house computing power. It also presumes a detailed level of understanding of many phenomena that does not exist. The strong emphasis in the majority report on highly detailed computer simulation, and the need for greatly enhanced computer resources, obscure the fact that existing NOAA computational facilities are substantial by international civil-sector standards. Furthermore, NOAA's commitment of resources for further expansion of those computational facilities is impressive, within the constraints of the agency's overall budget. On the other hand, little attention is given to the possibility of using more traditional techniques of simplified analysis and numerical modeling (combined with laboratory experimentation), in conjunction with existing numerical models, to provide an alternative, rapidly executed aid for operational forecasters. At the recent meeting of the Advisory Board, both reports were presented by John Snow, the Working Group Chairman. A motion to forward only the majority report was defeated, and the Advisory Board explicitly recommended that NOAA's Administrator consider both reports. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.313.5791.1221