Abstract
A coupled one-dimensional cloud and hail growth model was used to simulate the growth of hailstones in Mendoza, Argentina. The model-derived maximum hail size forecasts were based on 118 representative soundings released during the 1999-2000 hail season. Model ensemble, persistence and subjective hail forecasts were also verified against daily observations of the maximum size. The model control and ensemble showed promising skill when forecasting the occurrence of hail as measured by the Heidke’s Skill Score (HSS=0.60). On days with severe hail (diameter of 2 cm or more), the model control forecasts showed the best skill (HSS=0.59). The model showed improved forecast skill when run using sounding and surface data from the Alberta Hail Project. This was likely attributable to the stringent criteria placed on the proximity soundings and the availability of real-time surface data in Alberta. Although certain cloud model parameters were useful for inferring the potential (and size) of hail in Mendoza, the best results were achieved using the coupled cloud and hail model. The data also suggest that the ensemble technique improves the accuracy and skill of the hail forecasts on some days.
Highlights
The province of Mendoza (32° S; 68° W; 800 m above sea level), Argentina is located less than 100 kmeast of the Andes(peaks higher than 6500 m)
TheHSSvaries between-I for absolutely no forecast skill and I for a perfect forecast; a HSSgreater than 0.40 is consideredto be indicative of significant skill
This paper documents the performance of a coupled one-dimensional cloud and hail model employed by Weather Modification Inc. (WMI)to forecast the maximumhail size on the ground in Mendoza, Argentina
Summary
The province of Mendoza (32° S; 68° W; 800 m above sea level), Argentina is located less than 100 kmeast of the Andes(peaks higher than 6500 m). During the 1999-2000 season, a coupled onedimensional cloud and hall model was employed daily to forecast the maximumexpected hail size on the ground. (WMI’).Wealsotest whether the HAB_~ASmT odel is transferable to geographic regions outside Alberta. To this etad, the model’s performance in Mendozais comparedwith diagnostic model hail forecasts produced by Brimelow(1999) using Alberta Hail Project (AHP)damflora 1983 1985. Wepropose that adopting an ensemble approach will negate the sensitivity of the modelled hail size to uncertainties in the input data (Brimelow1999). This is beneficial whenthe accuracy of the input data is uncertain, as is often the case in an operational setting. The steady-state one-dimeusional (1D) cloud model developedby Poohnan(1992), is similar to the other
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