Abstract
Abstract. Flooding has been the most severe hazard in China from time immemorial, due to its special geographical, climatic and socio-economic conditions. In recent years, against the background of global climate change and rapid urbanization, extreme hydro-meteorological events have obviously increased in China, in turn affecting the sustainable social and economic development. This paper analyses how modern flood risk management has evolved from the early “build and protect” flood control approach to a broader flood risk management approach by analyzing what has happened in China and the role of major floods in this evolution. The development of flood forecasting models and systems in terms of how they have informed decision-making as flood risk management has evolved over the years. The challenging of recognizing and dealing with forecast uncertainty and flood risk in decision-making is also analyzed in the paper.
Highlights
Floods are the most frequent and serious natural disasters in China
By the end of 2018, there are 113 245 hydrometric stations maintained by the water sector in China, including 7102 hydrological stations (3148 state-level basic hydrological stations), 13 579 water level stations, 54 477 rainfall stations, 2571 soil moisture stations, 19 147 groundwater monitoring stations, among which there are 59 104 flood-reporting stations and 2100 flood forecasting sites
As the most significant non-engineering measure for flood control and disaster reduction, flood forecasting and warning plays an important role in support of decisionmaking for masses evacuation, rescue and relief, reservoir optimum operation, emergency response etc., bringing eminent economic and social benefits
Summary
Floods are the most frequent and serious natural disasters in China. a few floods in west China are subject to the mixed-type floods from snow and glacier melting as well as local storms, the majority of floods in China are caused by rainstorms in combination with the coastal storm surges. The average annual death toll in recent floods indicates a decreasing trend from 8571 (1950s) to 875 (2010s) as flood control systems have been improved significantly since 1950 (MWR, 2018) It is the exponentially increasing impact of flooding that has raised the profile of the practice of flood forecasting and warning. Social and environment changes, and climate systems, flooding is becoming more extreme, more widespread and more frequent in China, increasing the risks and the costs of flood disasters (Wu et al, 2013) This has given rise to increased emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting and warning, and the enhancement and refinement of flood-risk (understood as a product of probability and consequences) management systems. The accomplishments of China in this regard during the past 7 decades encompass the following three phases of flood control and management
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