Abstract
This study evaluated the effectiveness of the first Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Dar es Salaam. A Bayesian Hierarchical modeling approach and Bayesian hypothesis test were used to compare the operational performance of BRT against the non-BRT buses and private automobiles. The study also examined factors affecting the travel times of the three modes of transportation. The study corridor, which is 10.2 kilometers long, is an arterial segment along Morogoro Road. The predicted travel time for BRT was lowest at the 95% Bayesian credible interval, with a mean value of 16 minutes. Non-BRT bus trips had the highest travel time of 28 minutes, followed by personal automobile trips with an average travel time of 18 minutes, indicating that BRT buses improve travel time along the study corridor. Factors such as delay, time of day, dwelling time, number of stops, and trip direction significantly influenced travel time variability along the study routes.
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