Operational Dst index prediction model based on combination of artificial neural network and empirical model

Wooyeon Park,Keunchan Park,Jaejin Lee,Jiyoung Kim,Yu Yi,Yukinaga Miyashita,Alexander Frias,Junga Hwang,Jongdae Sohn,Kyung-Chan Kim,Jaeheung Park,Jongkil Lee,Young-Sil Kwak

doi:10.1051/swsc/2021021

Abstract

In this paper, an operational Dst index prediction model is developed by combining empirical and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. ANN algorithms are widely used to predict space weather conditions. While they require a large amount of data for machine learning, large-scale geomagnetic storms have not occurred sufficiently for the last 20 years, Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission operation period. Conversely, the empirical models are based on numerical equations derived from human intuition and are therefore applicable to extrapolate for large storms. In this study, we distinguish between Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven and Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) driven storms, estimate the minimum Dst values, and derive an equation for describing the recovery phase. The combined Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) Dst Prediction (KDP) model achieved better performance contrasted to ANN model only. This model could be used practically for space weather operation by extending prediction time to 24 h and updating the model output every hour.

Highlights

Large-scale interplanetary disturbances from the Sun interact with Earth’s magnetic field, resulting in severe space weather events, such as geomagnetic storms (Gonzalez et al, 1994; Ohtani et al, 2000; Bhaskar & Vichare, 2019)
This paper presents three Dst prediction models, simple artificial neural network (ANN), empirical model, and combination model (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) Dst Prediction, KASI Dst prediction (KDP))
This paper introduces the KDP model that combined an ANN and an empirical model

Summary

Introduction

Large-scale interplanetary disturbances from the Sun interact with Earth’s magnetic field, resulting in severe space weather events, such as geomagnetic storms (Gonzalez et al, 1994; Ohtani et al, 2000; Bhaskar & Vichare, 2019). The term Q(t) is a function that expresses the rate at which the ring current is intensified by the dusk-ward solar wind electric field (represented in the geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system); Pdyn is the solar wind dynamic pressure, s is the decay time when the ring current weakens by.

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