Operational Considerations in Global Health Modeling.

Katherine M Broadway,Aiguo Wu,Kierstyn T Schwartz-Watjen,Akeisha N Owens,Sweta R Batni,Anna L Swiatecka,Steven J Hadeed

doi:10.3390/pathogens10101348

Abstract

Epidemiological modeling and simulation can contribute cooperatively across multifaceted areas of biosurveillance systems. These efforts can be used to support real-time decision-making during public health emergencies and response operations. Robust epidemiological modeling and simulation tools are crucial to informing risk assessment, risk management, and other biosurveillance processes. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has sponsored the development of numerous modeling and decision support tools to address questions of operational relevance in response to emerging epidemics and pandemics. These tools were used during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the Ebola outbreaks in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This perspective discusses examples of the considerations DTRA has made when employing epidemiological modeling to inform on public health crises and highlights some of the key lessons learned. Future considerations for researchers developing epidemiological modeling tools to support biosurveillance and public health operations are recommended.

Highlights

Biosurveillance, defined as the collection, analysis, and communication of information pertaining to biological threats, fits synergistically with epidemiological modeling and simulation to support real-time decision-making during public health emergencies
As almost 75% of emerging diseases are zoonotic [1], animal health surveillance is an important component of a robust biosurveillance system
Multidisciplinary expertise in the fields of epidemiology, microbiology, clinical medicine, animal health, social sciences, and modeling and simulation is required for the construction of a robust, comprehensive biosurveillance system

Summary

Introduction

Biosurveillance, defined as the collection, analysis, and communication of information pertaining to biological threats, fits synergistically with epidemiological modeling and simulation to support real-time decision-making during public health emergencies It serves as a valuable asset for a prompt response to emerging infectious diseases, such as Ebola and COVID-19. AFHSB, the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (GEIS) section was established for improving the surveillance of diseases as well as enhancing the prevention of and response to infectious diseases [3] Another DoD agency, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has sponsored the development of numerous modeling and decision support tools as well as analytic capabilities to address questions of operational relevance in response to emerging epidemics and pandemics. These models highlighted the essential need for contact tracing and preventing these important modes of transmission to be able to successfully mitigate the Ebola outbreaks

COVID-19 Pandemic

Utility of DTRA Modeling and Operational Support

Lessons Learned and Improvements for the Future

Findings

Conclusions