Operational and accident survey of Russian nuclear submarines for risk assessments using statistical models for reliability growth

Abstract

In this study, 165 safety related events involving Russian nuclear submarines from 1959 to 2007 are surveyed with respect to vessel generation, reactor type, various types of initiating event (loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), transients, common cause initiators (CCI)), safety significance and the release of radioactivity. The survey of vessel operations shows that the accumulated number of vessel operating years (VOY)/reactor operating years (ROY) from 1959 to 2007 is 4991/9335. With respect to the survey of safety related events, out of the 165 events registered, there have been identified 17 accidents, 133 incidents and 15 deviations. As to event characteristics, 14 LOCA and 7 criticality events have been identified. The accident rates for each of the vessel generations exhibit the usual characteristics of a technological system under development, gradually going from a high accident rate to a stable lower level – however, with clear differences between reactor technologies (PWR versus LMC) and vessel generations. The mean-time between failures (MTBF) for various types of safety related events for the Russian nuclear submarines has been calculated for various events using the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) power-law model. When applied to the complete set of events, this model fails due to a cluster of safety related events that occurred between 1984 and 1987. With respect to releases of radioactivity, the MTBF has been calculated to 893 ± 138 VOY. All safety related events identified as part of this study are given in Appendix 1.