Operational analysis of threats to the security of NATO’s eastern flank. Context of hybrid activities

Abstract

ObjectivesThe aim of the study is to assess the strategic and tactical environment in Central and Eastern Europe, especially between the EU and Belarus, taking into account the results of political and operational analyses of the situation on the border between Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, and Belarus.Material and methodsThe paper collects and thoroughly analyzes the most important sources on threats to the security of NATO’s eastern flank. The purpose of the research is an operational analysis comprehensively covering the main factors posing threats to the security of Poland.ResultsIn the result of the operational analysis of hybrid warfare, the following factors were identified: demographics, military and non-military issues, the existence of a well-formed democratic society, critical infrastructure, and cybersecurity. All the above factors were discussed in the context of hybrid activities undertaken by Belarus and Russia.ConclusionsIt can be predicted that special elements conducting the aggressor’s hybrid activities will use exceptionally sophisticated forms of the aggressor’s influence, including blending in with the local community. The area of operation of non-military elements in the hybrid wars waged so far by Russia is likely to further expand and change forms in order to blindside the attacked state inducing fear, ineptitude and confusion of the society.