Operation Network Modeling With Degenerate Causal Strengths for Missile Defense Systems

Abstract

A hybrid operation network model is proposed to describe and evaluate a missile defense system. More specifically, the network model provides a formal modeling approach based on the concept of the Combat Network Model. It represents uncertain information of the combat space with probabilities and the causal strengths (CAST) logic. Besides, the degenerate value of CAST parameter is discussed, and a complete conflict situation is discovered which the existing CAST algorithm cannot handle it. Furthermore, a novel modeling framework is proposed with the degenerate CAST parameters and virtual actionable nodes. The framework characterizes the missile defense process considering such factors as time delay, location, capability, and operation scope of weapons. The feasibility of the proposed model is demonstrated using a simulated example along with a sensitivity analysis. The results show the advantage of the joint control and command, identify the sensitive events/activities regarding the efficiency improvement, and suggest an optimal expected operation time window.