Abstract
The case study examined the WWII operation “Market Garden” from the perspective of Clausewitzian simplicity, a general principle implied in von Clausewitz’s “On War,” suggesting that the disruptive impact of nonlinearity, friction and unpredictability can be counteracted by reducing necessary preconditions for success. It was demonstrated that estimates of ex post likelihoods of success, calculated from the relative achievement of objectives in various parts of the operational area, corresponded inversely to the number of preconditions known ex ante, which supports the notion that Clausewitzian simplicity facilitates realistic assessment of the probability of operational success.
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