Abstract
The complex power system and trading environment in China has led to higher requirements for the efficient and stable operation of the electricity market. With the continuous advancement of power system reforms, regular evaluation of the operation of the market can help us grasp its status and trends, which is of great significance for ensuring its sustainable development. In order to effectively evaluate the current operational status of the electricity market, the concept of operation health degree of power market (OHDPM) is proposed to measure whether the operation is safe, efficient, and sustainable. This paper establishes an improved model framework based on the matter-element extension theory for evaluation. In order to effectively avoid information distortion and loss in the evaluation process, this paper combines the cloud model, matter element extension theory, ideal point method (IPM), and cloud entropy optimization algorithm to deal with this problem. The matter-element extension cloud model (MEECM) can clearly represent the characteristics of the object to be evaluated. IPM is used to determine the weight of the index. For the improved matter-element extension model, the traditional rules of “3En” and “50% relevance” are taken into account, and the method of solving the entropy is optimized. Then, for the correlation degree between the object to be evaluated and the graded normal cloud, the weight vector solved by the IPM is used to weigh the cloud correlation degree, which can give a reliable evaluation result. The health evaluation index system of power market operation includes 16 sub-indicators in five categories: supply side, demand side, coordinated operation, market security, and sustainable development. In the empirical analysis, the OHDPM situation in Y Province was evaluated in May 2019. The results prove that the OHDPM level is medium, and the importance and health level of each index are given. The reliability of the power system, transaction price stability, Lerner index, residual proportion of producers, and user satisfaction have a greater impact on the health status. Finally, in order to verify the validity and stability of the model, different methods are used to evaluate the evaluation objects, and the advantages of OHDPM evaluation based on the model framework proposed in this paper are proven.
Highlights
Electricity plays an indispensable role in human economic and social development [1]
The evaluation results of EMMCM method based on the “3En” rule, the “50% relevance” rule, and cloud entropy optimization algorithm are 2.6952, 2.7643, and 2.8547, respectively, indicating that the health level is III, which shows that the introduction of the EMMCM method into OHDPM evaluation is reasonable
The smaller the credibility factor is, the smaller the dispersion degree of the conclusion is and the greater the reliability of the result is, so the evaluation result of the matter-element extension cloud model (MEECM) method corresponding to the cloud entropy optimization algorithm is the most reliable
Summary
Electricity plays an indispensable role in human economic and social development [1]. The installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation is 770 million kilowatts, accounting for 40.8% of the total installed capacity of China’s power generation, which increases the risk of stable operation of the electricity market. Faced with the complex and multidimensional operational environment of the electricity market, regular evaluation of the operational situation is helpful to grasp the existing problems in the development in a timely manner [6,7]. It is necessary to consider all aspects of power market operation and evaluate its situation to help government departments, power regulatory authorities, power exchange centers, and market players to grasp the current market development situation in a timely manner, so as to ensure that China’s power industry achieves sustainable development [8]
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